There have been significant changes to global cotton trade estimates in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for 2017-18, released by the Office of the Chief Economist, US department of agriculture (USDA). In May and early June, cotton shipments from the US were especially strong to Vietnam, Turkey, and China.Substantial developments have taken place comparatively late in the marketing year. “In the United States, May and early June shipments were substantially higher than previously expected and shipping orders remain high, resulting in a 500,000-bale increase in the export forecast for the season to 16.0 million bales,” the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA said in its latest ‘Cotton: World Markets and Trade’ report.
Importer data also shows strong trade. In Vietnam, May imports have remained well above year-ago levels. While some areas outside of China, such as Thailand and South Korea, have begun to show some weakness in consumption, Vietnam’s mill use continues to grow at a robust pace. China’s imports, meanwhile, are forecast up marginally, motivated by fairly strong March and April imports.
Exports and imports are both boosted for India. April exports were stronger than is typical, resulting in a higher export forecast for the season.
Thus, for 2017-18 season, cotton production is raised slightly due to increases in Brazil and Australia, while use is effectively unchanged. However, global trade is up, with higher exports for the US and India accompanied by higher imports by Vietnam, Turkey, and China.
However, for 2018-19 season, production is forecast down, with declines for China, Pakistan, and Australia partially offset by an increase for Brazil. Consumption and trade are forecast effectively unchanged, the report said.
Source: The Seattle Times, U.S.A Thursday, 14 June 2018